AFP (Agence France-Presse): WHO uncertain on SARS

May 06, 2003

BEIJING -The World Health Organization said Tuesday there was no way of knowing yet if SARS was peaking in Beijing, amid warnings the outbreak's economic impact could surpass that of the Asian financial crisis.

"It's too early to tell if the epidemic is peaking in Beijing," said Alan Schnur, a Beijing-based WHO virologist monitoring the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China.

"We are awaiting additional data to see what is really happening in Beijing," he told Agence France-Presse.

His comments came after a more reassuring tone in official press reports combined with a widely publicized drop in new cases over the weekend.

Beijing reported 69 new cases of SARS on Sunday, the lowest number since April 20 when the mayor was fired for a botched cover-up of the extent of the virus' spread, and the city allegedly began reporting the true situation.

The numbers jumped back up to 98 on Monday, quashing hopes that the epidemic had peaked.

While the figure dropped again to 70 Tuesday the WHO remained unconvinced that this signified that an end to the crisis was in sight.

"This is encouraging, but epidemiologically it means nothing and is not enough to make a judgement on how the epidemic is progressing," WHO spokeswoman Mangai Balasegaram said of Tuesday's numbers.

The nationwide death toll from SARS now stands at 214 after eight new fatalities Tuesday and the total number of cases is 4,409 after 138 cases were reported nationwide in the past 24 hours.

Even though little comfort could be drawn from the numbers, renowned virologist Zhong Nanshan told the China Daily newspaper the number of SARS cases in Beijing could start to decline steadily by the end of next week.

Zhong's findings were based on the outbreak in southern Guangdong province, which broke out in November and peaked in mid to late February, "roughly four months from its discovery", the paper said.

Meanwhile, a leading Chinese economist warned in the state press that the effect of SARS on China's economy could surpass that of the Asian financial crisis six years ago.

"The negative impact of SARS on the Chinese and Asian economies is all too evident," said Zhang Zhongliang, a researcher at the China Economic Monitoring Center, a leading think tank.

"And the impact on China's economy brought about by SARS could be greater than that of the Asian financial crisis of 1997," Zhang said in an opinion piece carried by the China Daily.

Zhang said that the initial impact of the 1997 downturn on China's economy was not felt until the following year and in many respects the SARS crisis may be similar.

But, he warned, its enduring effects could eventually be even more damaging.

http://www.inq7.net/wnw/2003/may/07/wnw_1-1.htm