HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong's financial community has always kept politics at arms length, but it is slowly waking up to the idea that a powerful, proposed anti-subversion law may seriously affect its ability to write balanced research on China.
The new law, which Hong Kong was required to enact as part of the agreement under which it returned to China from Britain in 1997, is aimed at preventing acts of subversion, sedition, treason against, or secession from China.
The government wants it in place by July.
Journalists and political opposition groups have already spotted the potential dangers for themselves.
But interpreted to the letter, some provisions in the planned law may also put high-flying corporate economists, analysts and researchers into a lot of trouble, industry sources say.
Some would prefer not to worry. "It has nothing to do with me, I do corporate analyses, not political analysis," said a fund manager with a foreign bank.
Others are not so sure. A business consultant and long-time resident in Hong Kong said: "I'm afraid our business people here are so busy thinking in terms of dollars and cents that that aspect of (the planned law) has entirely escaped their notice."
Whether they express worry, or not, no one contacted for an opinion was willing to have both themselves and their companies identified.
CHINA DRAWS THE LINES
Their worries revolve around the vagueness of the proposed law, which Beijing insists on having to prevent Hong Kong being used by hostile foreign forces to subvert the mainland.
Underlying their fear is that governments in Beijing and Hong Kong can, and they believe will, target any group they find objectionable by interpreting the future law arbitrarily in order to protect the policy interests of the ruling Communist Party.
One investment strategist for a major Chinese firm in Hong Kong, said it is possible for him to deal with information that authorities may easily deem to be state secrets in future.
"We may not know what is sensitive and what is not? We now deal with public information, but if we hear of tips, can we publish them in future? Can we talk about them?" he said.
"Take for example the coming 16th (Communist Party) congress. We talk about leaders stepping down and what impact it would have on some companies? But these are all state secrets!" he said.
Inside the mainland, Chinese media are routinely given guidance on what they should, and should not, report.
One of Asia's foremost financial hubs, Hong Kong teems with market analysts and researchers who churn out voluminous reports advising clients on what to buy and sell. These can sometimes be based on information that has not been publicly released.
Justice Secretary Elsie Leung, responsible for drafting the law, sent shivers through the city lately when she said obtaining information through unauthorised means would amount to stealing.
WHAT IS SUBVERSION?
Also worrying to some in the financial community is the offence of subversion, which Hong Kong's government wants to define as acts that "intimidate the central government".
"What happens when we issue a recommendation or express a view about a China policy that turns out to be bad for the investing community? Will that be subversive?" said a fund manager of a major Hong Kong bank.
"If we exercise a judgement or a view and that ends up bringing the markets down in Hong Kong and China, that will bring immense instability both economically and socially."
"They can take a literal approach and say we have caused instability, they can just lock me away!"
Hong Kong's reputation as a financial hub is also built around the freedom of expression enjoyed by its 6.8 million residents.
Careful that the planned law should not rock the business community, the Hong Kong government seems to have been more amenable to their concerns.
It recently backed down from a contentious plan to give police sweeping powers to compel banks to hand over confidential information without warrant.
The growing concerns on financial research suggest that this is an area where the government has not yet resolved fears.
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