Far Eastern Economic Review, Nov. 6, 2000

"I AM ANGRY." Those words, spoken by China's President Jiang Zemin at the end of a tirade against Hong Kong's press corps on October 27, reveal a lot about Jiang and the pressures he's facing during one of the toughest periods of his 11 years in office.

The occasion was a meeting between Jiang and Hong Kong's chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, at the Zhongnanhai leadership compound in Beijing. Reporters threw out questions to Jiang during a photo call and got an earful of presidential spleen in return.

Jabbing his fingers in anger and stammering in a jumble of Mandarin, Cantonese and English, Jiang let loose for five minutes on the shortcomings of Hong Kong reporters, calling them "simple," "inexperienced" and "naive." His remarks caused a predictable furore in Hong Kong, where they were seen as a threat to press freedom in the territory. But the outburst may have even bigger repercussions in the murky world of dynastic politics in Zhongnanhai itself.

Jiang's cameras-rolling temper tantrum was a stunning breach of expected behaviour for the head of state of any country. That could weaken his standing with liberal elements in the Chinese Communist Party that are grouped around reformist Premier Zhu Rongji.

They increasingly see Jiang and his stiff and equally imperious successor-to-be, Hu Jintao, as unsuited to projecting an open image of China for the new century. That image is critical to everything from the country's bid to host the 2008 Olympics to attempts to allay fears of its growing military and political clout in Asia.

"It is hard for the outside world to accept this kind of outburst from a senior Chinese leader," says Liu Junning, former deputy director of politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Jiang has shown by this action that he cannot properly handle public relations."

The eruption wasn't reported in China. But news of it spread rapidly around the country through the Internet and Hong Kong and Taiwan television. Government officials say it caused "disgust and embarrassment."

"Many believe that Jiang is no longer suitable for projecting a positive image for China abroad," says a mid-level bureaucrat in the central government in Beijing who's a supporter of Premier Zhu.

It's not the first time that Jiang has shown his ugly side to reporters. While mayor of Shanghai in 1987, he called a meeting of a thousand cadres to publicly denounce a reporter from the local Liberation Daily who had written a mildly critical report about his predilection to micromanage.

This time, the media questions concerned a different issue: Beijing's apparent decision to appoint Tung to a second term in 2002, a move that would supersede the symbolic role of a Hong Kong committee which is supposed to make that selection. But as in 1987, when an embattled Jiang was coping with the aftermath of student protests and a host of infrastructure problems in Shanghai, the outburst may reflect a man under grave pressure and insecure about his future.

Jiang is known to be infuriated by the continuing protests of the Falun Gong spiritual movement, which stages almost daily demonstrations in Tiananmen Square despite a 15-month-old ban on its activities. Jiang personally ordered the crackdown, while Zhu is believed to have favoured a more kid-gloves approach.

JIANG'S BATTLE IN BEIJING

Jiang is also believed to be under growing pressure in factional political battles. At an early-October party plenum, he failed to promote his aide-de-camp, Zeng Qinghong, to full membership of the politburo, three years after making him an alternate member of the cabinet-like body. The appointment was intended to place another Jiang supporter on the 21-member body as it begins discussions on the succession to Jiang in 2002.

The outburst may play into the hands of those favouring Zhu to take over the presidency and for a young technocrat from the provinces to assume Jiang's position as party general-secretary. Jiang wants Hu to have both posts. Either way, analysts say, Jiang's tirade is likely to exacerbate the growing split between the two leadership camps.

Jiang told the reporters he had "personally experienced a hundred battles" in his lifetime. Just a few weeks earlier, Premier Zhu told a television audience in Tokyo he had "suffered injustices more times than you can imagine." The battle between the two men may be just beginning.